Updated at 11 p.m.
Fresno City Councilman Henry T. Perea is running first in the mayor's race with 95% of the ballots counted. Perea has 9,989 votes or 27.8% to 9,720 votes or 27% for political newcomer Ashley Swearengin, according to the latest count. (Here's The Bee's editorial on the race that was published Wednesday.)
It's time to call this election: Swearengin and Perea will be your mayoral candidates in the November runoff election. The lead changed hands throughout the night. Swearengin was running first in early returns, and then Perea began inching up and overtaking her midway through the evening. By 11 p.m., he had a solid hold on the top stop, even though the vote totals were close.
It was always a Perea/Swearengin race for mayor, and the nine other candidates did nothing during the long campaign to break into the top two. The leaders had the most money and the better-run campaigns. The also-rans talked a lot about making their move in the latter days of the campaign, but they didn't have the resources to compete with the leaders.
Here is how the next four were running Tuesday night: Councilman Jerry Duncan was third with 11.3% and former Councilman Tom Boyajian was fourth with 9.72%. Deputy Mayor Jeff Eben was next with 9.68% and Councilman Mike Dages had 7.7%. None had a chance to challenge for second place, and a shot at getting into the runoff.
It will be an interesting runoff campaign to succeed Mayor Alan Autry, who has led the city for the past eight years. He could not run for another term because of term limits, but Autry probably would not have run if he could. It was time for him to move on after a relatively successful eight years.
Perea's vote total on Tuesday showed he has a solid base of support to build on over the next five months. He was bruised toward the end of the primary campaign, getting a constant pounding from the conservative Lincoln Club, and others. Those attacks undoubtedly shook votes from him.
For the most part, Swearengin escaped intense criticism and was able to concentrate of her positive message of change. That was very helpful to someone who had not been through a poltiical war. She won’t have that luxury in the runoff campaign. One thing she'll have to defend is whether the Regional Jobs Initiative, which she heads, has been effective.
Now we'll find out whether Swearengin can take a punch. Because there will be plenty of them headed her way in the runoff.
only 12000 voters created this runoff outcome, wow,...not thrilled with the outcome but thanks for the coverage, Jim, I left the TV in the closet tonight and every time I check in, you're right on it.....
One interesting, and possibly troubling thing I noticed from the map of the mayor's race is that the prosperous north went mostly for Swearingen, while Perea prevailed in the central and southern parts of the city. It looks like there are still "two Fresnos," at least politically.
The differences regarding which parts of the community voted for each candidate suggest a couple of interesting things. First, the NW does not know Perea that well and assumes because of union support, he would only listen to them. They are wrong, but the Lincoln Club did not help things on that issue. Secondly, as I understand it, most of the vote was expected to come from the NW and NE in the primary. If that is so, that should bode well for Perea in the general election where there should be a greater turnout and broader base of voters across the city.
That may be a good point about the turnout. There were more contested elections in the north. Another factor will be which way the other candidates' supporters go. I expect Duncan's support will go to Swearingen, and Boyajian's will go to Perea. I have no idea who Eben's supporters are.
I voted for Swearingen this time. But if the Lincoln Club* succeeds in repackaging her as a conservative candidate, I may switch to Perea in November.
(*Such an ironic name. While Lincoln was a Republican, he was far from being a conservative.)
Mr. Perea will not receive my vote in November. I live in his district and when I called my City Councilman concerning a neighborhood problem,he did not follow up on returning my calls. I doubt he would do so either as mayor.
Besides, we do not need career politicans. Henry T. needs to get out in the private sector and get a "real" job instead of suckling at the public trough.
MOI did not vote for either.
Over the past year living on a challenged road in Fresno MOI has tried to interest both of the front runners to visit my road and my neighborhood. Both have ignored.
The may that shows where support comes from is most illuminating. Perea says he cares and may show that he reaches out to the part of the City that needs attention. Perhaps the reason Mr. Perea does not come onto Calaveras is the he knows all too well that my road and my neighborhood, while loaded with Hispanics, for the most part is illegal and can not vote. Easy to write off.
Ms. Swearingen seems to get support from folks that have cash and live in that part of Fresno that is brilliant. She says she wants Downtown to be viable. She says that she is concerned about ALL of Fresno. Yet, when asked to come and see first hand the hard problems facing Fresno she has yet to come. Perhaps Ms. Swearingen feels that drug dealers selling 'poison', urban blight and gangs in my part of Fresno can be ignored as they will not affect that part of the City she has support from.
Neither seems willing to address the problem of illegals that have enormous impact on the resources of Fresno.
Perhaps more should have done like MOI and voted for the copper running for mayor.