Eight of the 10 cities with mortgages most likely to go into default are in California, with Riverside/San Bernardino, Los Angeles and Sacramento leading the pack, according to First American CoreLogic, which puts out a quarterly forecast.

The catalyst? Falling home prices. In 2005, fraud and collateral risks were the driving factors in the risk calculations. Today, it's price declines.

In Riverside and Los Angeles, prices have fallen 25% from a year ago. That, combined with increasing unemployment, increases the likelihood of poor mortgage performance.

That sounds a lot like what is happening in Fresno, even though we didn't make the top 10 riskiest markets. (Bakersfield did; it's No. 10).

But there are faint signs of hope. First American CoreLogic said the rate of price declines in some area is starting to slow, which is the first step toward finding a bottom. Chief economist Mark Fleming said places where prices have tumbled the most could be among the first to reach equilibrium.

Fleming also acknowledged the significant boost in existing home sales in the Valley - and the role that plays in shrinking supply, again a good thing.