Welcome aboard.

I'm blogging on today's local elections this afternoon and throughout the night.

First up: Will it be Ashley Swearengin vs. Henry T. Perea in the Fresno mayoral runoff? Or is there a chance that the pollsters and pundits (including me) are wrong?

Answer: Remember the New Hampshire Democratic primary back in January?

Some polls, including respected outfits Gallup and CNN, forecast a big victory for Sen. Barack Obama, who was coming off a smashing victory in Iowa. Political analysts swept up in Obama fever pronounced him unstoppable and forecast big trouble for Sen. Hillary Clinton.

New Hampshire, however, produced the first of several comebacks for Clinton, as she garnered nearly 40% of the vote to beat Obama and John Edwards.

How did the polls and many in the media get it wrong?

They couldn't keep up with the swirling sentiments of voters, many of whom didn't make up their minds until the last minute.

This long-winded intro brings us to the Fresno mayoral race. Available polling indicates that Perea and Swearengin will make the run-off, swamping the nine other candidates.

But a poll is only as good as its sampling, execution and timing -- and the honesty of its respondents.

All of the local polls I've seen on the mayoral race have claimed an accuracy of plus-or-minus 4.2% to 5%.

That tells me that it's highly unlikely -- but not impossible -- for Tom Boyajian or Jeff Eben to qualify for the mayoral showdown ahead of either Swearengin or Perea.

The only certainty: If you want your voice heard, you need to get to the polls before they close tonight at 8 o'clock.